Kofi Annan Foundation: Serbia faces Europe’s second-highest electoral violence risk, after Russia

The Kofi Annan Foundation’s Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI) 2026-2027, released in June 2026, gives Serbia a Risk Index score of 48.8 – the highest of any European or EU-candidate country in the Foundation’s published country analyses, after Russia, the only European country on the Index’s global top-15 list of highest-risk elections. Serbia’s score is nearly five times the regional baseline of 10.2 calculated for EU/EEA states and EU candidates excluding Serbia, and the model puts the probability of any electoral violence at 89.6 percent. Serbia’s electoral violence risk score of 48.8 is the highest in Europe after Russia’s.

The EVI attributes Serbia’s score to a combination of repeated contentious elections, government intimidation, weak clean-election indicators, opposition distrust, media imbalance and escalating street politics. It cites the absence of consecutive peaceful elections and a long streak of elections with at least moderate violence as the key structural drivers, alongside voting irregularities and vote buying. It describes the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Aleksandar Vučić as dominant over the political system, and notes recurring concerns from opposition parties, civic movements and independent observers over media capture, pressure on public-sector employees, misuse of administrative resources, vote-buying and intimidation.

Presidential elections are expected by 2027, when Vučić’s second term ends, and parliamentary elections by the end of 2027 unless called earlier – leaving the timing of the vote a central uncertainty. The report warns that early elections could serve as a negotiated way out of the protest crisis if minimum conditions are credible, but could also be seen as a tactical trap if called without reforms, while continued refusal to call elections risks keeping the conflict on the streets. It also points to Serbia’s geopolitical balancing between EU accession, Russia, China and the Kosovo talks as a factor that could be used to frame the election as a choice between sovereignty and foreign interference.

The Foundation recommends that authorities engage opposition parties, civic groups and international partners on minimum electoral conditions before the campaign, covering voter-list transparency, media access, campaign finance and safeguards against administrative pressure. It calls on the electoral commission, media regulator and judiciary to communicate decisions clearly and publish data promptly, on domestic observers and journalists to receive protection from harassment, and on the OSCE/ODIHR, EU institutions and other international partners to engage early rather than waiting for election-day observation.